The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday printed a withdrawal of 140 Bcf natural gas from storage for the week ended Jan 5. The result exceeded most expectations and the five-year average decrease of 89 Bcf.
Prior to the report, draw estimates submitted to Reuters averaged 119 Bcf. NGI modeled a pull of 121 Bcf. The bullish result sent Nymex natural gas futures higher.
“That's a healthy draw,” said one analyst on the online energy platform Enelyst.
Minutes ahead of the 10:30 ET government report, the February futures contract was flat from the prior day at $3.039/MMBtu. The prompt month climbed to $3.080 when the EIA data was released. By around 11 a.m. ET, it was up 8.2 cents to $ 3.121.
The decrease for last week lowered inventories to 3,336 Bcf, though stocks were above the year-earlier level of 2,900 Bcf and the five-year average of 2,988 Bcf.
By region, the Midwest and East led with draws of 44 Bcf and 42 Bcf, respectively, according to EIA.
The South Central followed closely with a draw of 41 Bcf that included a 29 Bcf pull from nonsalt facilities and a decrease of 12 Bcf in salts. Mountain region stocks decreased by 8 Bcf, while Pacific inventories fell by 5 Bcf.
Looking ahead to the next EIA inventory assessment, analysts are expecting another triple-digit decrease, given the arrival of frigid temperatures across much of the country and multiple bouts of snow in the current week.
The weather conditions also caused freeze-offs this week that contributed to production curtailments of more than 2 Bcf/d.
Early estimates reported to Reuters for the week ending Jan. 12 ranged from withdrawals of 116 Bcf to 161 Bcf, with an average decrease of 123 Bcf. The estimates compare with a five-year average decrease of 126 Bcf and a year-earlier decline of 68 Bcf.
“It should blow away last year” and the five-year average, another Enelyst participant said.
