The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a larger-than-normal 81 Bcf withdrawal from natural gas storage inventories for the week ending Nov. 25.
Natural gas futures prices were more than a dime higher in the minutes leading up to the EIA report, with the January Nymex contract around $7.060/MMBtu. However, the prompt month dipped slightly as the 81 Bcf print crossed trading desks and then continued to lose ground. By 11 a.m. ET, January futures were at $6.872, off 5.8 cents from Wednesday’s close.
Market observers on energy chat Enelyst said the latest pull was difficult to gauge given the long Thanksgiving weekend. Managing director Het Shah said he viewed the withdrawal as 3.1 Bcf/d loose year/year when adjusted for weather.
That said, the 81 Bcf pull came in much steeper than both last year’s 54 Bcf draw and the 34 Bcf five-year average withdrawal. It was generally in line with expectations, though estimates ranged widely ahead of the EIA report.
A Bloomberg survey found withdrawal estimates ranging from 72 Bcf to 121 Bcf, with a median 82 Bcf decline in stocks. A Reuters poll found estimates spanning from pulls of 72 Bcf to 92 Bcf, and a median of 84 Bcf. A Wall Street Journal poll, meanwhile, landed at an average withdrawal of 88 Bcf. Estimates ranged from decreases of 76 Bcf to 99 Bcf.
NGI modeled a pull of 89 Bcf.
Broken down by region, the East led with a 26 Bcf decline in stocks and the Midwest with a 23 Bcf decrease, according to EIA. The South Central withdrew 19 Bcf, which included a 15 Bcf drop from nonsalt facilities and a 4 Bcf pull from salts.
Both the Mountain and Pacific regions saw stocks fall 6 Bcf, EIA said. For the Pacific, the withdrawal sent inventories 21.5% below five-year average levels.
Total working gas in storage as of Nov. 25 stood at 3,483 Bcf, which is 89 Bcf below the similar week last year and 86 Bcf below the five-year average, according to EIA.
Looking ahead to the next EIA report, Shah said his supply/demand flow model was indicating a few days of net injections during the current reference period ending Dec. 2. His preliminary estimate was for a withdrawal in the 10-20 Bcf range.
