Natural Gas Forward Prices Slip as Fading Demand Eclipses Lower Supply
Lower production and a narrowing storage surplus fell short of countering forecasts for mild fall weather, leaving natural gas forward prices to probe lower.
Lower production and a narrowing storage surplus fell short of countering forecasts for mild fall weather, leaving natural gas forward prices to probe lower.
Natural gas forward prices strengthened at the front of the curve over the Sept. 5-11 trading period as traders baked in crisp autumn air taking hold in the Northeast and a massive new pipeline relieving trapped supply in the Permian Basin.
Natural gas forwards slipped at the front of the curve for most locations alongside trimmed demand expectations for September, while hubs in Canada posted gains ahead of the startup of the nation’s first LNG export terminal.
Underground stockpiles of natural gas in the Midwest are all but sure to finish the summer far above historical norms, reflecting robust production that offset strong seasonal cooling demand. Storage entered the summer at stout levels after a mild 2023-24 winter kept heating demand in check.
The natural gas market has tossed on a light sweater and officially turned the page on summer, sending prices lower across the forward curve, according to NGI’s Forward Look.
Natural gas forward basis prices slumped during the July 25-31 trading period, weighed down by a cooling August forecast, robust production and stubbornly high storage inventories. September basis dropped by an average 7.5 cents through the period, with the western United States leading the declines, according to NGI’s Forward Look.
Natural gas forwards advanced across portions of the East from June 13-18, bolstered by sweltering forecasts and a new pipeline expanding the reach of Appalachian Basin gas, according to NGI’s Forward Look.
Natural gas forwards rallied during the May 9-15 trading period as the market keyed in on the upside potential of summer power burns.
North American natural gas forwards rallied across the 2024 strip during the May 2-8 trading period as sagging production readings and an incrementally supportive LNG export outlook stirred bullish optimism.
Against a backdrop of soft near-term fundamentals, exceptionally weak spot market pricing and plummeting Nymex futures, regional natural gas forwards came under widespread bearish pressure during the March 7-13 trading period, NGI’s Forward Look data show.